- Marvin Harrison Jr. debuts for Houston on Sunday, a week after the trade, and coach DeMeco Ryans plans a limited snap count.
- Houston, 1-4, is a 2.5-point underdog and +125 on the moneyline against 4-1 Jacksonville, with the total at 42.5.
- Jacksonville has outscored opponents by 53 points and Houston has been outscored by two, a gap the 2.5-point spread treats as small.
- Jacksonville starts a backup left tackle against a Houston pass rush that has recorded a sack in 25 straight games.
HOUSTON – Marvin Harrison Jr. gets his first game in a Houston Texans uniform Sunday at Wembley Stadium, where Houston is a 2.5-point underdog to the Jacksonville Jaguars, after coach DeMeco Ryans confirmed Wednesday that the receiver will play.
Harrison Practices Three Days After The Trade And Will Not Play Every Snap
Harrison landed in Houston on Monday, cleared his physical and took his first Texans practice Wednesday, three days after the Arizona Cardinals sent him to Houston for a package of 2027 draft picks led by a second-rounder. The deal was announced shortly after a 26-3 road win over the Tennessee Titans, the Texans’ first victory this year.
“Don’t expect him to play all 60 snaps,” Ryans said. Harrison, taken fourth in the 2024 draft, produced 85 receiving yards and one touchdown on five catches from 13 targets across four Arizona games, and C.J. Stroud, who threw to him during the 2021 and 2022 Ohio State seasons, is his quarterback again.
Stroud has thrown for 1,402 yards, fourth in the NFL, but the passing game produces 0.11 expected points added (EPA) per pass play, 15th and just above the league median of 0.10. Efficiency, not yardage, is what a midseason addition at receiver has to move.
Jacksonville Has Outscored Opponents By 53, Houston Has Been Outscored By Two
The Jaguars have outscored opponents 123-70 and the Texans have scored 110 and allowed 112, which puts the average margin at plus 10.6 for Jacksonville and minus 0.4 for Houston, an 11-point gap. The 2.5-point spread asks for less than a quarter of it. Offense minus defense nets Jacksonville to plus 0.16 EPA per play, second in the NFL behind San Francisco, and Houston to minus 0.02, 22nd.
Both pictures come with caveats. Five games is the low end of what EPA needs to settle, and none of it adjusts for opponent. Three of Houston’s four losses came by five points or fewer, to Buffalo, Indianapolis and Dallas, and its lone win came against a Tennessee team now 0-5. Jacksonville’s last two wins came by five and two points. The spread leaves two readings: the market is treating five games of Jaguars dominance as partly noise, or it is pricing Houston’s roster above its record.
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| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Texans moneyline | +125 |
| Jaguars moneyline | -145 |
| Texans spread | +2.5 (-105) |
| Jaguars spread | -2.5 (-115) |
| Total points | 42.5 (over -110, under -110) |
| Jaguars to win AFC South | -325 |
| Texans to win AFC South | +475 |
The 42.5 total sits four points under the two offenses’ combined scoring average of 46.6, which fits a Jaguars defense that allows 14.0 points a game. The division board makes Sunday the swing game. A Houston win would leave the teams 2-4 and 4-2, two games apart, and a loss would leave the Texans 1-5 and four games behind a 5-1 team that is the defending AFC South champion.
Houston’s Run Game Is 26th And Meets The Third-Best Run Defense
The Texans’ rushing offense produces minus 0.21 EPA per rush, 26th in the NFL, and running back David Montgomery did not practice Wednesday with a groin injury, according to the team’s injury report. Ryans has called him week-to-week. Jacksonville’s run defense allows minus 0.23 per rush, third best in the league, where lower is better.
That points Houston toward the pass, where the Jaguars are seventh best at roughly zero EPA per pass play. The secondary is where Jacksonville’s injury report is longest. Cornerback Montaric Brown did not practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury, and cornerbacks Jaylon Jones, Jarrian Jones and Jourdan Lewis and safety Eric Murray were limited, so five Jacksonville defensive backs are listed ahead of Harrison’s debut.
Jaguars Lose Left Tackle Anton Harrison For At Least Four Games
Tuesday’s move of left tackle Anton Harrison to injured reserve came two days after he twisted his right knee planting his leg on a block in the Oct. 11 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the arthroscopic surgery waits until the Jaguars are back from London, The Associated Press reported. Walker Little, 39 career starts over six Jacksonville seasons, steps in. The Jaguars had moved Anton Harrison from right to left tackle this season to help their running game.
Houston has recorded at least one sack in 25 consecutive games, the team said. Will Anderson Jr. has at least a half-sack in all five games this season, including three against Tennessee, and Danielle Hunter added one in that game. The Texans have also gone seven straight games without allowing 90 rushing yards, the longest streak in franchise history, the team said. That is the matchup where Houston’s strength meets a Jacksonville change made this week.
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NFL Network carries the game from Wembley Stadium at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (8:30 Central) Sunday, with Jacksonville giving up a home date to play it there.